NFL Cheat Sheet – Week 7


Week 7 Player Previews

BYE Teams: Philadelphia, Tampa Bay
Thursday Game Omitted: Jets @ Patriots

Here are this weeks previews for players in every single
game. I use this exact outline when constructing my own lineups. If you don’t see a player listed here, he won’t make my lineups. If you’d like to see someone in the future or what to discuss the previews, leave a comment, I’d be glad to read it!

Falcons @ Ravens

Atlanta Falcons
BAL vs. QBs- 18th most fpts allowed
BAL vs. RBs- 28th most fpts allowed
BAL vs. WRs- 11th most fpts allowed
BAL vs TEs- 25th most fpts allowed

Matt Ryan ($6500 – QB15)
Not a good showing from Matt Ryan against the Bears at home, in what everyone expected to be an offensive slugfest. Ryan has had exactly 3 or 1 TDs in every game this season, so it’s no surprise that he’s a little boom-or-bust. I am buying into a bounceback week for Ryan. It’s not a particularly good matchup and it’s on the road, but it’s at least on turf. I think this offense is too (fantasy) good to not play Ryan. His price has plummeted ($8600 last week) and there’s big upside to this guy.

Julio Jones ($7800 – WR4)
If I am buying Ryan, I have to buy Julio. Again, his price drops after a pedestrian week and he’s matchup proof. I am hoping that owners shy away from these two this week and I will stack them together.

Roddy White ($4100 – WR44)
I am giving up on Roddy until future notice. He looked TERRIBLE against the Bears. He didn’t look particularly interested in running routes and has alway been susceptible to dropping the football. He’s just not the player he used to be and it’s showing on film.

Continue reading

NFL Nuggets From Fantasy 32

Every week, Mike Clay writes a great piece that he calls 32 Fantasy Tips.  I wanted to pull out a couple of nuggets from this week’s article and discuss the impact on DFS.

 

27. The Lions continue to struggle on offense, which has really held Golden Tate back from massive production. Despite putting up only 44 yards on seven receptions Sunday, Tate was the target on 39 percent of Matthew Stafford‘s throws. Tate has seen at least 30 percent of the team’s targets each of the past three games. Don’t sleep on Tate after the “down” week. Assuming Calvin Johnson remains out, Tate is in for a pair of big games against New Orleans and Atlanta the next two weeks.

This one is self-explanatory.  I believe Golden Tate will be under-owned this week after being a “disappointment” in week 6. So as owners jump off the bandwagon, it is to our benefit to hop on! Tate is $5900 on DraftKings and should fit into a ton of lineups.

28. No offense has used two-plus tight end sets more than Kansas City (47 percent) this season. Veteran Anthony Fasano is a near-every-down player and averaging a respectable 14 percent of the team’s targets. Travis Kelce is playing closer to half the snaps but has seen just under 20 percent of the targets. Alex Smith has targeted his tight ends 34 percent of the time, which, as you probably guessed, is highest in the league. Kelce’s status as a back-end TE1 is safe.

Right here are two of the contrarian tight end options of the week. Travis Kelce is priced as the #8 TE at $4800 on DK.  He’s scored TDs in the last three games.  Fasano is an even deeper sleeper who’s min-priced ($3000) on DK. Both have a ton of opportunity to succeed and it will be very easy to forget about both guys as they had a bye last week.

32. Desperate for running back help in PPR? Look no further than Roy Helu. Washington has called pass 86 percent of the time when Helu is on the field this season, which is the highest rate among backs with at least 120 snaps played. The veteran has managed just 20 carries but has caught all 17 of his targets for 258 yards. Helu sits 26th among backs in fantasy points in PPR leagues.

This is a really fun call that I love.  Roy Helu ($3900 – RB36) is priced to move! The guy has had at least one play of over 22 yards in his last four games. In fact, he’s only NOT scored in double digits on DK once in those last four. He is about a sneaky as you get for a RB, because he might only seen one or two carries. He does his damage in the receiving game.

NFL Position Rankings – Week 7

cropped-Luck.jpg As always, these rankings take into account both their projected performances in conjunction with their salaries. Also note, this is for the games starting on Sunday, so the Thursday game is omitted.

Quarterbacks
Player Salary Opponent
1 Andrew Luck $9,700 Cin
2 Aaron Rodgers $8,800 Car
3 Peyton Manning $9,000 SF
4 Philip Rivers $8,600 KC
5 Matthew Stafford $7,000 NO
6 Drew Brees $8,100 @Det
7 Jay Cutler $7,900 Mia
8 Cam Newton $8,200 @GB
9 Colin Kaepernick $6,500 @Den
10 Russell Wilson $6,800 @StL
11 Matt Ryan $6,500 @Bal
12 Carson Palmer $7,300 @Oak
13 Joe Flacco $7,700 Atl
14 Tony Romo $7,200 NYG
15 Eli Manning $6,200 @Dal
16 Kirk Cousins $7,400 Ten
17 Andy Dalton $7,100 @Ind
18 Alex Smith $6,000 @SD
19 Ben Roethlisberger $5,700 Hou
20 Charlie Whitehurst $5,000 @Wsh
21 Brian Hoyer $5,600 @Jac
22 Blake Bortles $5,700 Cle
23 Derek Carr $5,800 Ari
24 Austin Davis $5,800 Sea

Continue reading

Week 6 – Lineup Review

Just because the week is over and the results are in, does not mean your work is done! A great exercise is to go back and review the lineups that you submitted for the week and try to determine what worked, what didn’t, and if there were any trends.

This article is used for me to go through my best & worst lineups and give the thought process that I had when constructing them.

Note: These rosters are all from the $2 entry ($100k Play Action on DraftKings). I was testing out a new predictive model and had 27 lineups in this contest.

BEST:

Week 6 Best Lineup

I didn’t have any lineups that really broke out and flirted with 200 (the magic number). I did, however, have a bunch of lineups in the 155-164 range.  This was my best that I assembled.

Continue reading

NFL Position Rankings – Week 6

Here’s the DraftKings rankings by position. It’s my rankings based on not only how I think they will fare this week, but also taking their salaries into consideration.

Quarterbacks
Name Salary Team Opp
1 Peyton Manning $9,400 DEN @NYJ
2 Philip Rivers $8,200 SD @Oak
3 Russell Wilson $7,600 SEA Dal
4 Aaron Rodgers $8,400 GB @Mia
5 Eli Manning $7,800 NYG @Phi
6 Jay Cutler $8,000 CHI @Atl
7 Nick Foles $6,800 PHI NYG
8 Matt Ryan $8,600 ATL Chi
9 Kirk Cousins $6,700 WSH @Ari
10 Jake Locker $5,500 TEN Jac
11 Colin Kaepernick $7,200 SF @StL
12 Matthew Stafford $8,200 DET @Min
13 Ben Roethlisberger $6,500 PIT @Cle
14 Andy Dalton $6,500 CIN Car
15 Charlie Whitehurst $6,200 TEN JAC
16 Cam Newton $6,100 CAR @Cin
17 Tom Brady $6,000 NE @Buf
18 Teddy Bridgewater $6,300 MIN Det
19 Joe Flacco $6,700 BAL @TB
20 Brian Hoyer $6,100 CLE Pit
21 Mike Glennon $5,900 TB Bal
22 Tony Romo $6,100 DAL @Sea
23 Ryan Tannehill $6,100 MIA GB
24 Austin Davis $6,400 STL SF
25 Blake Bortles $5,700 JAC @Ten

Continue reading

Football Preview – Week 6

Week 6 Preview
Bye Teams: Kansas City, New Orleans

A few notes here:

  • All salaries are based on DraftKings prices
  • Points against are based on ESPN Standard Scoring
    (1st is LEAST allowed, 32nd is MOST allowed)

Lions @ Vikings – 1:00pm

Detroit Lions
MIN vs. QBs – 25th most pts allowed
MIN vs. RBs – 13th most allowed
MIN vs. WRs – 14th most pts allowed
MIN vs. TEs –  18th most pts allowed

Matt Stafford ($8200 – T-QB4)
Hasn’t had time to throw being sacked 17 times in the first 5 games.  Has only thrown for over 300 yards once this year (week 1) and hasn’t thrown for more than 2 TDs. He’s dependant on Calvin Johnson and is priced way too high to be a considerable play this week.

Continue reading