Category: NBA (page 1 of 2)

DraftKings Strategy – NBA Projections – 4/2/15

A few months ago, I made a video that covered How To Make NBA Projections. It sparked a lot of great discussion and questions, but what I found out was that I did not nearly give the projections the justice that they deserved.  In an attempt to not bore everyone, I took a process that could take hours and shortened it down to about 18 minutes. This left a lot of questions unanswered.

What I plan on doing is going through the process of creating NBA Projections again, but this time doing it step by step and not skipping anything. It will most likely come in the form of a multiple part video series on YouTube.

In the meantime, I want to offer my NBA Projections to everyone for the rest of the season. Each day, I will post them here on this site and update them as much as possible. They will be in a simple Google Doc spreadsheet that you can access. Feel free to use them for whatever you want (create lineups, put them in an optimizer, use them as a baseline for your own projections, etc). They should be sortable but remember that if you change the sorting, it will change for everyone who is viewing at the time.

Here is a link to today’s projections

Also, if you are new to the game or know someone who wants to try it out, please sign up to DraftKings with my referral link. That allows me to continue to pump out as much content as I can.  I am also happy to answer any questions on here, YouTube, or Twitter.

Quick overview on how the projections work:

DraftKings Strategy – Daily 140 – Tue, March 10th

Tonight’s NBA Preview in 140 seconds. Only six games on the slate and two very shallow positions.

Daily 140: Wed, March 4th

draftkings strategy

I want to continue to find new and effective ways of communicating information about players. I think I can be too long winded with DraftKings strategy in videos which make it difficult for people to listen to the entire thing.  I am going to start a feature called the “Daily 140″ where I will pick out some players I like for tonight and tell you why in 140 characters or less.  It’s quick and to the point! Let’s do it:

If you prefer to listen:


Russell Westbrook ($11,500)
Tough to fade, but too many concerns. How cautious will they be? Blowout factor. Salary is through the roof. Sadly avoiding him.

Mo Williams ($7,000)
Over 44 DK points in each of last three. Stuffing the stat sheet in multiple categories. Buy now before his price explodes.

Ricky Rubio ($7,800)
Walking triple-double. Gets to face the pitiful Nuggets. Huge upside.


Demar DeRozan ($7,200)
Usage rate increase if Kyle Lowry is out. Has 50 point upside.


LeBron James ($10,400)
The King is well rested and playing out of his mind. Highest floor of any player available tonight.

Michael Beasley ($3,300)
Could see 25 minutes of run tonight. Taken 10+ shots in each of the last two. Provides salary relief.


Tim Duncan ($6,800)
Hasn’t played since Feb 28. Well-rested and in great matchup. Could see vintage Duncan tonight.

Serge Ibaka ($8,000)
Concerns with Westbrook. Ibaka has great matchup too. They may rely on him more if Westy is hesitant to go to the hoop.


Demarcus Cousins ($9,700)
Only concern is blowout potential. Boogie can stuff the stat sheet against anyone. Might be overlooked tonight.

Rudy Gobert ($6,700)
The chalk play at C for good reason. BOS bigs are soft as they come. Can’t match Gobert’s energy.

How To Make NBA Projections

One of the questions that I get asked the most is how to begin making custom NBA Projections. Almost every site offers their own, but no one gives up the “secret sauce” and tells you what goes into it. Here is a simple way to get started. The perfect foundation to begin tweaking and making them as custom as you want.

Links used:

Basketball-Reference (PER 100)

Team Rankings (Possessions) 

NumberFire (Minutes)

DraftKings Strategy – RIU Challenge – Day 15

Back and better than ever! After a week off, we came roaring back with a clean sweep of the 5 HU matches and a cash in the GPP. It feels good to be back on the right track and we were tested with several bad days in a row.  However, it’s important to stick to a good process, proper bankroll management, and keeping a good attitude.

Tonight is a small slate of only three games, so we will not put out an entire 10% of the bankroll.  We will enter one GPP. There are not a lot of great plays for me tonight, but I discuss some of the players anyway!

Bankroll: $71.10 (-$28.90)

DraftKings Strategy – RIU Challenge – Day 14

Welcome back! I went on a holiday hiatus, but am back for some more NBA! A massive slate tonight includes some really interesting value plays and a ton of great matchups.

DraftKings Strategy – RIU Challenge- Day 13

A very average night going 4-3 in HU and not cashing in the GPP. Tonight is a small slate without a ton of great options.  It will be difficult to put together anything that I really love.

Bankroll: $87.50 (-$12.50)

HU Record: 35-30

GPP Record: 4 of 11 cashes (Biggest Win: $6.00)


DraftKings Strategy – RIU Challenge – Day 12

Not a very good night last night! In fact, our lowest scoring night of the Challenge at 205.25 points. Not surprising that we suffered defeats in all of our matches, dropping the full 10%.

3 of our 4 value plays panned out, but all of our higher priced players under-performed.

Tonight is a five game NBA slate with a very shallow SF position.

Bankroll: $89.30 (-$10.70)

HU Record: 31-27

GPP Record: 4 cashes in 10 (Biggest Win: $6.00)


DraftKings Strategy – RIU Challenge – Day 11

There are a ton of great value plays and a ton of great PGs in play this evening.  I wish I could roster 4 PGs, but unfortunately, I cannot.  I walk you through each position and point out a few good plays at each one. You can use the short list of players to create your lineups.

Bankroll: $99.30 ($-0.70)

HU Record: 31-19

GPP Record: 4 cashes in 9 (Biggest Win: $6.00)

DraftKings Strategy – RIU Challenge – Day 10

The good times continue to roll! Another night sweeping the 7 HU matches and cashing in the GPP. This episode contains a recap and constructing a lineup around a ton of questionable players.

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